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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals
ARIA 23.990.0%Feb 17 4:00 PM EST
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To: jesspro who wrote (4311)6/10/2016 1:12:02 PM
From: jaybe2 Recommendations

Recommended By
civic08801
mulanoon2007

   of 4474
 
Definitely not. The biggest and most important differentiator with alectinib is PFS, 8.9m vs. briga's 12.9m. Unexpectedly, ALTA CNS ORR is now higher than alectinib as well, 67% vs. 61%. I'm expecting CNS PFS will also outpace alectinib. See below for my latest comparison.



In any case alectinib is formidable, with 18 months head start, impeccable safety, and likely the best marketing engine in BP.
With that said this is how I see briga's sales in ALK+ NSCLC for foreseeable future...

1L
alectinib 45%
brigatinib 35% (could be higher with BP partner)
other 15%
trials 5%

2L
alectinib 30% (reduced by 1L use)
brigatinib 25% (35% until 2020)
lorlatinib 25% (by 2020)
other 10%
trials 10%

Briga Peak Sales
1L = 12,600 pts. x 95% x 35% x $150K/yr. x 24 mos. = $1.26B
2L = 6,000 pts. x 90% x avg. 30% x $150K/yr. x 16 mos. = $324M
Total Briga peak annual sales = $1.58B
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