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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 145.37-1.4%1:06 PM EST
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4222)12/30/1997 6:07:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Justa;

I can't speak to the credibility of the source of Teri's article. However, I could quote several sources that would contradict the 50% Korean Dram market share. According to Semi Data, Korea represented 10% of total global semi equipment orders during cal 1997. The same fugure for cal 1996 was only 11% of global equipment consumption.

I do believe that 50% of the global equipment market of roughly $27.6 billion in 1997 and 21.3 bil in 1996 was targeted at commodity parts. Hence, a simple calculation of (11%Korean cap ex consumption) x (27.6 bil in global equip) would yield 3.036 bil in Korean equipment deployed on average over the last 2 years. I'm being generous here as I'm sure one of you engineers won't like my math. Assuming all of the Korean capacity was targeted at DRAM this level of spending is too low for them to garner 50% of global DRAM revenue.

I will try to get GOOD DRAM market share data for you, and post the real %. Please use my 35% for the time being, because I did not pull that number out of the air! I'm sure it was a reliable source. I just don't have the source in front of me. It may have been IDC. We shall see.

Jay
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