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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 143.23-2.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4232)12/30/1997 9:20:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Jay: Thanks for doing the research on Korean DRAM market share. I think it is important to determine what percentage of market share they have as to better understand the problem. I am sure you probably did not pull that figure from thin air.

As you can gather from my previous posts, to me it seems next to impossible for someone to get a handle on the problem because the available numbers upon which to base any conclusions are all over the map. Whether Korea represents 35% or 50% of the global DRAM market is, of course, an important issue in and of itself but, more importantly, when the numbers seem to be all over the map on a variety of measures the question of their inherent reliability becomes the larger issue.

Consider this minor but very important distiction. We have seen the analysts and particpants on SI inquire as to the percentage revenue that is derived from a company's operations in SEA in order to gauge the effects of SEA on a particluar company. But do those results show what revenues are derived from equipment placements in SEA or do they show what percentage of business is done with SEA based customers? It makes a big difference. I don't think there is too long a line of investors waiting to pile into a hypothetical chipmaking equipment company that has no placement revenues in SEA (US or European fabs only) but is a Korean conglomerate. I am citing this example just to illustrate a point. I have yet see an analyst report that has defined his or her methodology or cited sources used in caclculating their SEA figures. They are just cited as fact and the reader is supposed to accept it as such. Put all the numbers together from various sources and it all comes out a garbled mess from my perspective.

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