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Technology Stocks : Orbital science (ORB)

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To: DIAMOND JIM who wrote (664)	12/30/1997 9:31:00 PM
From: Michael Young	Read Replies (1) of 2394

The price action the past few days demonstrates that the Orbcomm launches are what the market cares most about. ORBI's other launch business is nice, but it is the Orbcomm system that really gets the market excited. I'm not going to say PE isn't important, but I think Orbcomm becoming the first system with worldwide coverage is huge. Compare the market value of ORBI to IRIDF and GSTRF if you want to do some valuation analysis. IRIDF is at $5.2 billion and GSTRF is $1.5 billion. And those are specialized service companies only, whereas ORBI has the satellite launch and contruction as well as GPS businesses. In that light ORBI has a long way to run. Sure the IRIDF and GSTRF systems will have more capability, but they are also MUCH more expensive and those companies are carrying a ton of debt. Is there really a huge market for $3 a minute phone calls as IRIDF would have the market believe? Maybe, but I'm much more certain there is a market for international companies to track their assets worldwide as well as allowing employees to send short messages around the world with minimal delay. $90 a share within 12 months is not realistic, but don't discount the market's desire for a damn good story. MIKE

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