Roger, I think much of your scenario is possible, but not sure I can see that far into the future in so much detail. :)
And I do take exception with one element - I just don't see a bottom in 1999, but later, given the extreme turmoil that I expect surrounding the Y2K issue. I think it's going to be very real, there are going to be some very significant blunders and associated costs. I expect further world market instability, particularly in Europe this time, as the rest of the world (except for third world!) is not as well-prepared as we are in the U.S.
Incidently, I just went quite long INTC, waiting to short AOL, probably not for a few weeks yet. If nothing else, I am supported (in a contrarian way) by sentiment here on SI - the INTC thread is lackadasical - nobody expects INTC to be back to 100 for at least a year or more - I think that it's possible in this rally (though I am only looking for a 10 point gain). I find the INTC sentiment very similar to that on the SUNW thread before it's rally into the late fall peak. In a few short weeks it far exceeded prices that were being predicted a year out on the thread. The regulars were flabbergasted, and unsettled, to say the least. :)
The AOL thread is still almost universally negative, warning me that it ain't time to short it yet. :)
My reasoning with INTC is that I don't believe we can have a real market rally without INTC participating. I do beleive we have started a real rally, and INTC will have to catch up. I think that investors have been waiting to see if it is real before they will jump into INTC. I am sure that there are many others like me that treat INTC with respect equal to the major averages - it is the only stock (OK, INTCW really) that is ALWAYS on my real-time charts and that I ALWAYS check before making any trade! (Many people use INTCW as a leading market indicator.)
The TA looks good, with INTC just having done a positive MACD crossover, and these have been very reliable on INTC. I am looking for a rally to the 50ma (76) and probably the 200ma (80ish) at minimum.
I do think that AOL is going to head to 100-110 at this point. Keep in mind that some nitwit analyst has a 140 target on AOL, as well... |
