My mid-year review of GERN
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap was $0.766B EOY2015 is $0.426B mid2016)
Geron is a leading edge biotech, and has been for over a decade. While originally they were diversified across four major technologies, they have spun off three of them (see my notes about AST on InvestorVillage.com) and are reduced to working on a cancer treatment based on managing telomerase. While that may sound restrictive, telomerase potentially could treat multiple cancers; and because it controls cell growth and death, could possibly treat auto-immune diseases, as I understand it. The treatment is in clinical trials, but is years away from possible approval. If they succeed, and if the treatment works for more than the first targeted cancer, then the company may finally live up to its potential. Innovative treatments, however, have to deal with the non-innovative FDA approval process. Alternatively, such an important breakthrough could achieve a compassionate status. If successful, they will be challenging an entrenched cancer industry what will have billions of dollars in revenue at risk potentially sparking an immense corporate immune response (as was witnessed in Dendreon's successful prostate cancer vaccine.)
I have a sufficiently large holding that my finances would be significantly improved with the success of the stock, the treatment, and the company. There is entrenched support for the company as evidenced by the market cap of more than half a billion dollars. Such a high market valuation for an unproven treatment limits some of the upside potential because some of it is already priced in. After decades of waiting, it may only take a few more years for approval.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold (though I sold much, partly for diversification, partly to raise funds.)
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com |
