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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 421.32-0.5%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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ggersh
To: Maurice Winn who wrote (120564)7/2/2016 5:39:13 PM
From: GPS Info1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 219464
 
Dead from terrorists in USA = 300 per year. That's 1 in 100 not 10,000+ times as likely. You were right that people don't understand probability.

You are right that people don't understand probability or statistics, or the difference between facts and opinions, and they may never understand them.

Here is a table of terrorist fatalities in the US:
start.umd.edu

There have been 2,961 Americans killed by terrorists in the US between 9/11/2001 and the end of 2014. The 9/11 attacks killed 2,902 of those. If you take the average over 13.3 years, you will get 223 deaths per year. The only way to get to 300 deaths per year is to reduce the window of the time span down to less than 10 years. Anyone could choose an even smaller window to increase the average, but what does he prove by doing so?

How about taking the deaths of Americans by terrorists in the US between 2002 and 2012? We get 3.1 deaths per year. At this level the ratio is 10,000 more likely to be killed in a car accident. An important question: is this a new or temporary trend?

Given that there is 20 year's worth of data in the table, the average is about 158 per year. What's a 90% error between friends?

Fear of jihad terrorists is not irrational. This fear is more likely for those with an enlarged amygdala, however, Mq recommends his level of fear for everyone else.
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