COT Report: Gold adds longs, Silver shorts cover
COT: Silver Shorts Cover, Gold Specs Add:
-by Doug P.
Silver
Large Speculators: the volumes are light, but the ratio is worth mentioning. Those covering shorts accounted for 2805 contracts while those getting long were a mere 835. This obviously smacks of short-covering rally. More so because it happened on the heels of the Brexit vote, and after Gold rallied. Almost like some fund had bigger things to worry about. And then after that, took care of their Silver exposure.Small Specs: accounted for 1759 lots of short covering, while adding no longsCommercials: added 6100 shorts while adding 835 longs.Silver Weekly Chart with Open Interest
Silver Comments:
Open Interest: up in a rally is generally bullish. Up near all time highs is not- NeutralSpeculators: were covering shorts. This was not a greed fueled rally, more of a fear based one. - Slightly BullishCommercials: their sell/buy ratio was 6 to 1. Whereas the Commercial open interest is 3 to 1. Commercials are leaning into this- BearishWhat does it mean?
We just ended the first half of the year. This is not insignficant as funds have to report to investors, and could have been the main driver behind Silver's late-to-the-party but hogging-the-dance-floor behaviour. End of Q2, End of 1st half. Short funds closing trades. Maybe a fund blew up. Wouldn't be the first time.If you look at open interest and see that longs and shorts are at an extreme, it should give you pause. But when fresh money is investing in the market, traders often see slow stochastics bounce off 100% for weeks. That indicator is meaningless when it does that because it has not digested the fresh money: The "New Normal" so to speak.the report does not have the 3 biggest days in it.Bill Cinton bought some Silver for AG Loretta Lynch's grandkids?- Doug P.If this trend continued for the rest of the week, then we have a bonafide short squeeze. We dont neccesarily see anyone forcing a squeeze yet. That doesn't mean they didn't. The market is not as transparent as people would have you believe.
But we'd speculate that funds with losses in other areas started to liquidate their silver shorts after their bigger issues were alleviated. And as a percentage of their caputal at risk werent' as price sensitive as they were in need of reducing margin. They could have had a Gold/ Silver spread on. Again just speculating. But if we were long Gold and short silver, and the position worked for us right after brexit, we'd be inclined to lift our short position in the hopes of driving Gold higher and generating sell liquidity.
For us, the technicals are bullish. Cash Flows are bullish as both large and small specs are covering. The bear side is commercials are not afraid. . Sounds like pull backs above 1800 can be bought. That is not a recommendation. That is a risk reward. If you are trading, think for yourself. Open interest went up 5700 contracts, new sellers on the commercial side. We call that "weak hands to strong hands behavior". It means the funds covered shorts, while their deeperpocketed commercial players sold into the rally. So bullish now bearish later. One source we trust actively in Silver for 30 years said "this smells like the beginning". That said, we both laugh at how we sold our stock positions in 2009. So take it for what it's worth.
Even Though the COT report comes out on Jul1, its is accurate through Tuesday June 28th. So the biggest 3 day move Silver has had in some time is not reflected in the report here.
Friday's Silver Report
Kitco Gold Survey Says Gold to Keep Gains
JPM and Physical Silver
Silver COT Report: Futures
| Large Speculators
| Commercial
| Long
| Short
| Spreading
| Long
| Short
| 107,555
| 23,894
| 22,274
| 56,671
| 151,872
| 613
| -2,805
| 3,948
| 835
| 6,100
| Traders
| 100
| 54
| 40
| 41
| 45
| Small Speculators
| Open Interest
| Total
| Long
| Short
| 211,396
| Long
| Short
| 24,896
| 13,356
| 186,500
| 198,040
| 382
| -1,465
| 5,778
| 5,396
| 7,243
| non reportable positions
| Positions as of:
| 162
| 124
|
| Tuesday, June 28, 2016
| © SilverSeek.com
|
Silver COT Report: Futures & Options Combined
| Large Speculators
| Commercial
| Long
| Short
| Spreading
| Long
| Short
| 108,256
| 22,439
| 35,322
| 62,686
| 160,651
| 1,803
| -1,903
| -1,571
| -1,149
| 4,315
| Traders
| 109
| 56
| 61
| 49
| 47
| Small Speculators
| Open Interest
| Total
| Long
| Short
| 232,748
| Long
| Short
| 26,484
| 14,335
| 206,264
| 218,413
| -1
| -1,759
| -918
| -917
| 841
| non reportable positions
| Positions as of:
| 184
| 144
|
| Tuesday, June 28, 2016
| © SilverS
|
FULL REPORT
Traders' Commitments
| This report, from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is updated weekly and released on Friday afternoon. The CFTC requires any person or firm trading a certain number of contracts to report that trading. The number of contracts that triggers the reporting requirement varies by commodity. A commercial hedger is a large trader who also deals in the commodity on a cash basis. A large speculator is a non-commercial trader who has no dealings in the underlying commodity. The number of contracts traded by small traders is derived by subtracting the positions of larger traders and commercial hedgers from the total of all positions.
| June 28, 2016
| Number of Contracts and Changes from Previous Week
|
| Contract/Category
| Long
| Long Chg.
| Short
| Short Chg.
|
| Copper
| Large Speculator
| 53,692
| -10,147
| 73,506
| -23,259
| Commercial Hedger
| 83,357
| -12,428
| 60,873
| -427
| Small Trader
| 12,651
| -3,357
| 15,321
| -2,246
| Corn
| Large Speculator
| 440,231
| -69,546
| 151,116
| -29,776
| Commercial Hedger
| 598,307
| -46,460
| 811,251
| -70,154
| Small Trader
| 121,930
| -2,431
| 198,101
| -18,507
| Crude Oil
| Large Speculator
| 510,395
| -4,832
| 206,156
| 9,524
| Commercial Hedger
| 600,141
| 12,646
| 907,925
| 2,849
| Small Trader
| 91,896
| 1,661
| 88,351
| -2,898
| Eurodollars
| Large Speculator
| 1,296,697
| 15,604
| 1,292,758
| -170,656
| Commercial Hedger
| 5,863,473
| -101,995
| 5,558,485
| 92,312
| Small Trader
| 793,623
| -7,848
| 1,102,550
| -15,895
| Gold
| Large Speculator
| 373,128
| 14,303
| 71,208
| 5,112
| Commercial Hedger
| 127,169
| 7,387
| 453,490
| 21,571
| Small Trader
| 49,131
| 1,620
| 24,730
| -3,373
| Live Cattle
| Large Speculator
| 85,326
| -1,863
| 69,935
| 725
| Commercial Hedger
| 100,695
| 546
| 108,663
| -2,180
| Small Trader
| 25,451
| -793
| 32,874
| -655
| S & P 500
| Large Speculator
| 9,077
| 457
| 7,415
| 2,780
| Commercial Hedger
| 45,138
| 18,032
| 35,055
| 1,351
| Small Trader
| 29,044
| 64
| 40,789
| 14,422
| S & P 500 (E-Mini)
| Large Speculator
| 506,355
| -3,618
| 444,424
| -10,729
| Commercial Hedger
| 2,016,153
| 128,523
| 2,090,478
| 143,281
| Small Trader
| 346,324
| 42,789
| 333,930
| 35,142
| Silver (Comex)
| Large Speculator
| 107,555
| 613
| 23,894
| -2,805
| Commercial Hedger
| 56,671
| 835
| 151,872
| 6,100
| Small Trader
| 24,896
| 382
| 13,356
| -1,465
| Soybeans
| Large Speculator
| 311,052
| -6,014
| 58,978
| -15,605
| Commercial Hedger
| 321,970
| -47,525
| 530,615
| -42,059
| Small Trader
| 54,499
| -6,129
| 97,928
| -2,004
| Sugar (No. 11)
| Large Speculator
| 346,059
| -3,666
| 32,988
| 579
| Commercial Hedger
| 363,089
| -29,723
| 729,596
| -37,518
| Small Trader
| 89,395
| -5,007
| 35,959
| -1,457
| T-Bonds (Chicago)
| Large Speculator
| 137,609
| -36,302
| 71,606
| 1,166
| Commercial Hedger
| 247,044
| 9,407
| 333,923
| -28,140
| Small Trader
| 155,085
| -1,523
| 134,209
| -1,444
| Wheat (Chicago)
| Large Speculator
| 107,849
| -10,107
| 177,677
| 8,515
| Commercial Hedger
| 186,836
| -12,026
| 121,397
| -30,197
| Small Trader
| 46,049
| 2,296
| 41,660
| 1,845
| Yen
| Large Speculator
| 85,493
| 6,095
| 25,743
| -1,359
| Commercial Hedger
| 30,249
| -201
| 88,316
| 1,324
| Small Trader
| 25,006
| -7,005
| 26,689
| -1,076
|
| All data as of latest Tuesday. Table Courtey Barron's
- Soren K.
|
|
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