Re: IDC Predictions
I vehemently disagree with IDC about several of their outrageous predictions. I've never had much respect for these data shops and some of the crap they're spouting here just digs them deeper ...
"Information appliances and vendors will invade ..."
What the hell is an "Information appliance" ??
IDC doesn't seem to realize that PCs have become so widespread precisely because they are so general-purpose, and adaptable to many tasks. One of the most significant among those tasks is entertainment. Go to the software store, look at the popular game titles, and tell me what the typical recommended system configuration is. Pentium 133 or better, fast video cards, often supporting 3D accelerators, lots of RAM, tons of disk space, etc. The $500 PC will not cut it.
"Web-enabled TVs, Web-enabled screenphones, Web-enabled videogame consoles, Web-enabled personal digital assistants (PDAs)"
These devices are not substutitive goods to the PC. These devices are COMPLEMENTARY goods, as evidenced by the 3COM PalmPilot, which is nearly worthless by itself, but invaluable in conjunction with a powerful PC running support software.
"The business-centric PC model will die."
What the hell does THAT mean? Businesses will stop buying PCs? The PC has become a vital component of a successful modern business. Applications will continue to grow in power and flexibility, and will continue to raise the bar on hardware needs.
"Intel will launch a major non-Pentium chip..."
"Microsoft will...create a new non-Windows appliance platform."
IDC guys are really smoking some juicy dope. It's almost as if they're intentionally making the most outrageous predictions possible, so that if any of this actually happens they'll gain amazing fame and notoriety ...
Regarding the other predictions...
DSL is not going to happen on a wide scale in consumer markets until the FCC changes rules about resale requirements.
Thin software is a pipe dream. Moore's law makes thin software totally irrelevant. Show an instance where a given piece of software has shrunk over time.
If not for the thought of gullibles out there swallowing this slop whole, it would be entertaining.
PX |
