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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

SPY 675.37

-1.2%

4:00 PM EST

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From: Robohogs	7/15/2016 1:48:52 AM
	of 668

I admit it. I messed up. My downloader was going so well that I tried to double its capacity. Oops. Stopped working. I will try again later now that I slimmed it down but it is locked from all the changes! I have the smaller 45 components of XBI going back to 2000. A different file (in Google Sheets) meant to keep XBI larger 40 component data for recent periods goes back to 2014. Startling, startling data. Using 0 as the base cumulative A/D count before 2014, the small caps peak at 315 on July 17, 2015. On the same date the larger caps peak at 879. Remember, the small caps have 45 components and the large caps 40 - all are trading at the peak. Today the bottom 45 hit -36 and the top 40 hit 780. So the bottom 45 are off rather dramatically from the peak while the large caps are basically there. While the data might be sketchy, the older data suggests the small caps had a gigantic negative count in the -2000 range from 2000 to 2016. I am not sure how to read that - do not trust the data all that much nor my formulas - will confirm formulas with others later. Sorting the 2014 forward data by max positive ticks, smaller, larger and all max out on 7/17/15 as mentioned. For the small caps, none of the figures this year rank in the Top 100+. For the large caps, 6/2/16 ranks at number 10, 47 behind the peak. 7/12/16 is at 17th. 4/21/16 is a lot further back. Overall 6/2/16 is 39th with 4/22/16 way way back. 7/8 and 7/12 are a lot further back. A couple of observations can be gleaned: Bios actually not very healthy below the larger caps (includes mid caps) as seen by runs I have been doing on my Robo 40 grouping (mainly top 70 bios now but top 40 still alive), on FBT and on XBI. This bull thrust into July is weaker than the past rallies. Either that means it is just shorter and came too far too fast OR it could mean bios are about to break down. News flow sucks again btw. Jon

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