Re Crude-
Moreover, I think you're attributing too much importance to Chinese demand in the crude supply-demand equation. The reason fuel prices are so low is primarily a problem of oversupply, not demand While what you are saying is true, this did not prevent the crude to fall from $100 to $30/brl. I also think hat in the end, the vehicle that are going to be driven in China a probably not going o be powered by gasoline. If you have ever been to a Chinese city, you net how bad airpolution is right now - the traffic chaos no withstanding bringing 3x more cars on the road simply isn't possible, so I think China will have to find other solution (public transport, electric cars etc) to find a solution for the congestion and pollution. There will never be as many cars and miles driven than in the US or even Europe in China.
IN any case, speculating on crude for the bullish part of a long/short bet is highly risky. I can easily see crude going down, the stock market going up, which I think would be a double whammy for your portfolio.
I don't know about you - I have made many bets in the past - some worked out and some didn't. I think they were a wash overall and didn't make any money and probably lost me some on aggregate. What made me the most money is buying on panick some decent stocks that I had a decent understanding off, very cheaply (MLP at the beginning of this year were a good example). The second thing that made me money was buying good companies at fair (or better prices) and holding them for a long time (Nestle and Laaco were some recent examples). That's also a way less stressful way to invest compared to betting on macro trends, which is important, because my investments are not worth losing my sleep over. |
