General market lab and commentary Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

SPY 675.37

-1.2%

4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

From: Robohogs	7/16/2016 12:52:14 PM
	of 668

I just spent 2 hours looking at charts. I remove comment about this mkt looking more like 2000-2003 than 2008-2009. I got concerned the 4th signal in 2000/01 led to huge plunge and it was 1 year post 1st signal. Same now. But that market was 15% off highs and up 6x in 2.5 years or 3x in 2 years. And the macd was falling. Now we are 25% off highs. MACD is diverging negatively a bit but is in uptrend. Looking back and forth I think we are lining up perfectly with 2008-2009 but in slow motion. Exit will not be as easy - there the old trend line had been re-hit within 18 months. BUT I could argue momentum stuff indicated a real bottom in Oct 2008 ahead of first bottom in late Nov and second bottom in March. The second actual bottom was WAY above first and momentum indicators did not penetrate oversold. Well, this may sound strange, BREXIT just created the second bottom here. We are about the same time between bottoms. And there was an early momentum bottom late last year. The main difference is this move was slower and the first indicator bottom was not as deep as the first cash bottom. Otherwise, they are close. We are now forming a handle a la 2009. I assume we chop in a 3-5% range for a few weeks and then break to upside. W there in 2008/09 too. I am wrong if we move more than 5-7% from recent highs. Move was bigger down in 09 but bounce off double bottom was bigger. IBB by the way did have lower low in June so things do align. Both second bottoms very gappy too. Almost island reversals too. IF I am right (BIG IF), that mkt jumped 2/3 over the next 4 months. We are moving at about 2/3 of that mkt recently so call it 40-50%. $85 XBI anyone? Jon

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next