Hi Spekulatius, I don't want to get caught in a war of platitudes here. As you know, I think not only the portfolio but the optimal portfolio is a function of the investor, where "investor parameters" include "cash flow requirements" (liquidity, income, drawdowns, returns) and "competency requirements" (what you are or are not good at, which kind of analytical tools and systems you can afford, etc). I can think of numerous investors who have demonstrated enviable track records with macro, Soros being the emperor. If Soros' TR came from coin-flipping, I'll happily flip that coin for the next 50 years. If you suck at macro, no one here is going to hold it against you - but that doesn't lead to the conclusion that no one can gain enough knowledge/ experience to do a good job of it. I make no claims of skill, but I am investing time here because I think it matters. As I mentioned here earlier, I view value investing as a Grahamian subset of macro dealing with depression-era valuations. Additionally I always require the trifecta of macro/ value/ technicals to justify an investment - that way if I am wrong about one I still have two backups.
I try not to judge other people's strategies on this thread since I generally don't know either the person's trades or rationale (both being necessary to evaluate return on any sort of risk-adjusted basis). I guess the exception was gizwick's because the claims were so outlandish that I felt compelled to at least raise an eyebrow. OTOH, high-quality individual security analyses are self-consistent and thus form a good basis for discussion.
FWIW, I think the strictly value philosophy of buying into a panick is a good one so long as you have determined in advance what price you are willing to pay to ensure an adequate margin of safety. Although back in Mike Burry's time here people did post valuation analyses here, I rarely see that anymore except for the occasional P/B or Graham's number. If you want to post a valuation for the picks you cite below I will happily take another look at them. I've been doing most of my valuation work over on COBAF and on SA since late last year since I wasn't getting much feedback on my ideas.
That's all I've got. Feel free to finish it off and I will argue no more. |
