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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: combjelly who wrote (948534)7/21/2016 12:07:03 AM
From: i-node1 Recommendation

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TideGlider

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>> It would be weird if he didn't get a bump during the convention. That will fade with time.

That 40% figure is based on polls before the convention.

There should be a bump; if not, Trump has a problem. But only after both convention bumps have resolved will we begin to have some sense of where it is going.

I do believe Trump has been helped pretty substantially thus far. He could still blow it tomorrow, but I doubt that is going to happen.

If you look at the general election polls, it is basically tied. If you look at state-by-state, Trump is strong in OH, FL, PA, NC and even NH is within the margin of error. The only big problem is CO which would make it far more likely for Trump.

Liberal Golden Boy Nate Silver says Trumps probability of winning is about like Kerry's was in 04 at this point in the race. But this year we have almost 2 months more between the convention and the election than last time.
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