Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.34

+1.1%

Jan 23 9:30 AM EST

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To: davesd who wrote (13966)	12/31/1997 1:19:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) of 70976

"in 1996 AMAT stock started correcting before the industry admitted that we were headed for a slowdown. However, once AMAT admitted it...the stock fell to it's lowest for the period." It is human nature to look at facts and interpret them to reflect your own views, or ignore items that violate your views. In light of that, my own perception of 1996 is that amat dropped from 60 to about the upper 40's before the first "warning", then crashed to the low 20's when many experts thought they would have quarterly losses.What has happened SO FAR is quite different. A drop from 55 to 26 with management standing firm on what the next years #'s will be. We don't have a lot of downside, or at least as much as in 1996, if a warning comes. I realize we have huge dangers to look forward to, but at 26 most of it was priced in. Potentially, a real panic could get us to the teens, but my own advice wouold be to not wait until then to buy, but position yourself to survive the fall with some ability to buy. Happy New Year, Gene

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