Ivan,
Re: SGI down trend line from gap day high. I believe 11/12 was a signal day, and since that low was not violated the next day and the bounce followed on the second day after the signal, your theory of using the downtrend for resistance to exit would have worked perfectly in that case. This case is the exact one we have now with SGI, where the downtrend line is well above the signal low giving room for the bounce.
In the case where the downtrend line is close by and is broken quickly by the awakening cat, this worked very well for these two. Perhaps you want to check out the following symbols for confirmation of your ideas:
TSEMF signal: 11/12 and 12/15
QUAL signal: 11/24, 12/1, and 12/30
BMC signal: 12/17
ALTS signal: 11/12, 12/15, 12/19
AMLN signal: 11/20
TEAL signal: 10/23, 10/30, 11/5, 11/19
ACTM signal: 11/7
TRKN signal: 12/2, 12/15
Many of these signals did not work out, which may be attributable to the recent market conditions (a guess). If you can find something to separate the cats from the dogs, then I'd be happy to play this technique to the exclusion of everything else. It's been raining buckets of both species lately.
In the absence of a further reliable filter, I'm leaning toward playing all the cats on the theory that some will bounce and some won't, and you need to be there for those that do. My current filter is based on getting an entry price close to the signal low so as to reduce the loss amount should the stop loss be called into play.
Esteban |
