GOODBYE 1997, HELLO 1998!
Appreciate your opinions and comments and hope that you're right.
I think it boils down to the risk/reward of VLNC at $5/share, being "on the verge of production" is incredibly favorable right now. Yes, we've all heard the ready for production story before, but management is on the line saying 1st Qtr 98 (after having earlier said mid 97). Even if they postpone until mid 98 or late 98, the price of VLNC is already reflected of such pessimistic expectations.
I can't help but to think that it's not a matter of "if", but rather, when VLNC comes out with deals. Other competitors in the market are proving that they can mass produce lithium polymer, so the mystery of how to do it is pretty much solved. Rather now, it's a matter of how much can they produce, which VLNC is setting the stage to be the dominant producer of lithium/polymer batteries.
Will VLNC make it long term (3 - 10 years)? Who knows? I probably will only have a modest stake in them in 3 - 5 years, after hopefully making the bulk off of my investment nest year. I'll be completely honest, I'm not in VLNC for the long term with as much money as I have invested right now. Let's just say that today's $.50 rise gave my portfolio a nice boost. I'll keep a small amount in it for the long term as "what do I have to lose kind of money".
During the year in 97, whenever I was out of VLNC, I couldn't sleep at
night thinking that I was going to miss out on something VERY BIG! Well, I invested heavily in the 9s, $8s, $7s, $6s, and $5s afterall, and still can't sleep at night! We'll see if my intuition will prove me a "poor man" or will win out again. In almost every stock I research and invest in, I'm generally right about the long term prospects. It's just the short term returns that get me in trouble. So, I'm in VLNC for the "long term", hoping to cash in so that I can upgrade my kitchen!!
Good luck to you and all VLNC shareholders.
Finally, goodbye 1997! Hello 1998.
Happy New Year to all! |
