Robwert, sorry for answering so belatedly, just as I was going to go on line to admit my stupidity, I was kicked off SI. I erred with those numbers, of course, I think I got these here and they stuck in memory before I checked the numbers. I believe these ar the percentage of shipment of equipment to DRAM makers not their percentage of total chips output. That of course weakens the argument that excess capacity in dram diverted to foundries will have a major impact on capacity in those "for hire" foundries.
While the specific numbers to support the argument are wrong, I am not sure if the general tenet is wrong, in that in the last two years an extremely high percentage of sales has been spent on capital expenditure in the industry. While the equipment sales worldwide for semi equip is quoted in 1995 and 1996 to be $24 and $26 billions respectively, we must add to that a sizeable number for the non equipment part (buildings, clean rooms, and the internal infrastructure), which I beliebve would bring such expenditure to around 25% of sales (sales were respectively, $144 and $132 Billions in 1995 and 1996-source, Economic indicator of Semiconductor International).
By the way, the same source projects semi equip. to reach $30 billlion in 1998, but I believe that when the number will be tallied up, the numbers will be lower, possibly lower than the outgoing year.
Sorry for the error.
Zeev |
