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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion

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To: paul e thomas who wrote (8605)12/31/1997 6:26:00 PM
From: paul e thomas  Read Replies (4) of 13949
 
IT TAKES PATIENCE SOMETIMES

In 1997 I sold stocks 272 times I bought earlier.I invested 3.7 million $ of which 95 % was in Y2K stocks. IT was a rocky road to travel as 4/1 and as recently as 11/11 I was losing money on a year to date basis. ON 11/11 I was in fact on a total portfolio basis including the current portfolio 83,000$ in the hole for the year.NOne the less I stuck to my belief that the Y2K stocks with the best competitive position should be backed aggressively. Since 11/11 my strategy has paid off . My current investment of 430,000$ is now up 29% for an annualized gain of 293%. With yesterdays gain of 48,000$ on the sale of 200,000 $ of IMRS I now have a 6% gain or 15% annualized on the stocks I have sold. Since 11/11/ I have gained 280,000$. I tell you this not to impress you but to encourage you to stay focused. During the year I adopted a number of different tactics.In the beginning of the year I was mostly betting on Y@K stocks on the basis of stochastic indicators. I got mesmerized by my first quarter sucecess particularly with VIAS. I unfortunately rode it down buying all the way and took some big losses. I also got very badly burned by trying to ride the ZITL train.In the second quarter I discovered IMRS and CBSL and was among one of the fortunate to ride both up.After each quarterly conference call and after a personal talk with Satish Sanan I became really convinced IMRS had the soundest strategic plan of any of the Y2K players. This belief was tested when the stock price collapsed from 31 to 20. Fortunately I believed in my own instincts and bet big IMRS would in due course test the 2nd quarter high. Today it hit 38$. I have no illusions IMRS is a moonshot from this point despite the MAD MONKS current belief to the contrary. I intend to sell IMRS at the first signs of profit taking in the hope of buying back at lower prices.
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