Ted: Can I take the fifth? I am afraid that if I answer with my true opinion I be booted out.
Well, I like taking unecessary risk. I think you have a good chance by next september to graduate to the Table. But Ted, if this stock declines to 1.5 will you stay with it? Right now it is in a very precarious technical condition, hopefully this is a Tax Selling aberation, but the stock has bounced against 2 few times, the Bollinger bands are naroowing again and there is as much chance for a break down than a break up. The reason I think that you should not be too worried about it is that we are already well below what I would call fair value and even below stated book value.
Yet, the old rule says, if the technicals and the fundamentals disagree obey the technicals and try and find out what could be deteriorating fundamentals. My speculation is that Arakis needs to raise $200 MM in Capex money, and if the lending has any similarity to the last financing, than, of coursem the fundamentals will apeear and be ugly. I just cannot see why Arakis would have to accept terms like the one they had accepted before. Last year, Arakis was with its back to the wall, today the situation is quite different. But, with Malaysia and China being the partners, and with financial difficulties ion the east rising, money might not be the easiest thing to come by.
Zeev
Zeev |
