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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: combjelly who wrote (956521)	8/13/2016 9:31:42 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) of 1575014

The static projections are in a sense an estimate that the dymanic effects are zero, which is pretty much always wrong. Dynamic estimates by politicians (at least those proposing tax cuts, and in other areas by those promoting more spending as stimulus or positive effects for most other things politicians do or want) are usually too optimistic, but zero is just silly. The problem is that its not just hard to estimate the dynamic effect beforehand, its even hard to estimate it looking back. Economies are complex, with many different major effects and literally (at least) billions of minor effects and you don't get to run controlled experiments on whole economies. In the short run teasing out how much of the effect is a stimulus effect and how much is a supply side effect can be difficult (although both would be dynamic effects), in the long run the effects should be large (even if its a small percentage it compounds) but in the long run tax policy changes, as do countless other things, so its probably impossible to get solid uncontested specific measurements.

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