[contracts]
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Hal --
While I've followed the ADSL sector in general and Amati in particular for over two years, I've not followed Westell in the same way, so take this for what it's worth.
When Seamans promised three "significant" contracts, I believe he was speaking in good faith. He may not have thought they'd get all of BellCanada, but at least a good portion. As it turned out they got a small initial contract and "significant number one" became so-so.
The same with GTE. I believe nearly everyone involved thought the initial CAP launch would be more than an apartment complex in Marina del Rey with a promise of similar contracts down the line. This time significant number two wasn't just so-so, but an embarrassment.
As for the third, I believe initially it may have referred to British Telecom, through one or both of the prime contractors: Fujitsu and Alcatel. To my knowledge there's been no official announcement from BT, so significant number three still could materialize.
When analyzing Seamans' promises, I think it's good to keep in mind how dramatically the playing field has changed since the original conference call. Did he know back then to what extent BC's direction was changing? Did he know GTE would put on the brakes so hard they'd leave skid marks across every corporate ledger they touched? Did he know to what extent CG would be held up? Who's to say. I certainly can't.
From the official SEC documents we know Westell and Amati were in negotiations to merge as far back as early May, so Seamans had to have known they needed DMT. If he hadn't, he sure as heck wouldn't have needed to buy a company whose main asset was intellectual property based on it. So what made him decide they needed DMT? The JPC contract hadn't done it a year earlier, so I can only guess it was BCTel's decision and the knowledge that both GTE and BC would be influenced to go the same route --- or for those who believe BCTel wasn't calling the shots, that the others had already decided and let them pioneer the way.
Now when you say the third contract may be GTE's ILEC, ironically, you may be right. I don't think this was the case when Seamans made his comments but with TI's purchase of Amati and Westell being given the Allegro/DMT contracts, it's now a distinct possibility.
As of yesterday, I'm a Westell shareholder and wouldn't be if I didn't think they'd succeed. Just the same, I think I jumped the gun, having promised myself I'd wait for management to get ironed out before jumping in. I know I'm a dreamer, but I sure wish they'd find a junior Michael Armstrong to take the helm. Someone I respect very highly told me companies have different stages of growth and each one takes a different style of management. When one stage is complete, the board has to bring in what's appropriate for the next. If this happens --- when this happens --- I predict the stock will take off.
And I could be wrong.
Happy New Year, everyone, especially Billc, whose confidence has been unwavering.
Pat
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