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Technology Stocks : Mellanox Technologies, Ltd.

MLNX 124.89

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Apr 27 5:00 PM EST

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From: w0z	8/21/2016 3:54:02 PM
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Excerpt from Takeaway From Intel's IDF 2016: Stock And Revenue To Double In 5 Years Silicon Photonics. In a deja vu moment, Diane Bryant "launched" Silicon Photonics, which even she admitted has been in the works for 16 years and which we've heard about in past IDF's and Investor Days. This time, however, its not vaporware and has been shipping since June. In the first commercial incarnations of this technology, the laser transceiver for fiber optic communications is right on the silicon. Bryant made the significant addition to the this announcement pointing out that the tiny lithography used for all Intel silicon has made this product more accurate, it doesn't need manual tuning, and it has more "reach" i.e., the transceiver can work over longer fiber distances. I've watched this tech area for a while and it was part of my thesis on successfully shorting Mellanox (NASDAQ: MLNX) who push the competing Infiniband optical networking technology but without this vital innovation. I'm not currently short Mellanox but may go short again based on this announcement. This is a vintage Intel tech game changer. I think silicon photonics can be a substantial new revenue item for Intel and perhaps a first low hanging target is Mellanox's sub-billion in revenue. Bryant has mentioned Mellanox by name in past presentations. I think Intel will enjoy at least $2 billion in silicon photonics business five years from now.

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