.......read this you idiot............I'll bet you still support this abomination
The Economics Of Healthcare Insurance
Aug. 19, 2016 7:39 AM ET
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Includes: AET, HQH, HUM, IBB, IHF, PJP, UNH, XBI, XLV
Kevin Wilson
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Registered investment advisor, contrarian, value, bonds
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www.bluewatercapitaladvisors.com
Summary
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) was the most complex law ever passed; however, its treatment of the economics of healthcare was not as well thought-out as one would hope.
As a result, we have seen huge premium increases, substantial tax and penalty costs, some loss of choice, some loss of employment benefits, and projected increases in government deficits.
Adverse selection pressures and unrealistic assumptions about insurance risk have made the ACA economically unsustainable; in consequence, big insurers like UNH, HUM, and AET have been cutting their participation.
Congress will have to do something to save it, and it will; it may make sense to stay away from healthcare insurers, hospitals, and pharmaceuticals (XLV, IHF, PJP).
Winners may include genetics-driven biotechs, which are not directly taxed by the ACA and do not depend solely on it for support; e.g., buy IBB, XHB, or HQH on dips.
(Source: ADVANCE for Laboratory)
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) was the most complex law ever passed, yet famously, nobody read it before the vote. The results of this mad rush to get something, anything done on this festering social problem have been a bit mixed. Millions more people (about 23 million) are insured now that weren't before, according to Dan Diamond at Forbes (Chart 1), but the cost impact on the federal budget is about $180 billion per year (Chart 2). Taxes, fees, and penalties will total about $832 billion over the next ten years, according to the CBO and the Heritage Foundation (Chart 3), and yet, are probably inadequate to sustain the new system because of exploding healthcare costs (expected to rise another 14% in 2017). Primarily, this projected cost increase is the result of the near-doubling of Medicaid spending over the next ten years (Chart 4). This means the federal deficit is likely to rise also, perhaps by as much as $1 trillion over ten years. By 2020, total healthcare costs to the economy are projected to be about $4.6 trillion (Chart 5).
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