The 'Fine Print'...,
Disclosure: I am/we are long INTC, MU.
(Comments on the Seeking Alpha article were worth reading as much as the article itself):
"You do realize Zen, (AMD), just beat Broadwell, (INTC), in a render benchmark?"
pcgamer.com
From the first paragraph of the same news release that Phred quoted:
"Now in production, 3D XPoint technology is a major breakthrough in memory process technology and the first new memory category since the introduction of NAND flash in 1989."
"Now in production" means exactly that to me. To be kind, that was a less than truthful statement
However, I am still long INTC and cautiously optimistic.
On one side there are new revenue and earning drivers. Unfortunately foundry and memory margins tend to be low, and in the Automotive, IoT, AI, AR, and 5G world, INTC does not have definitive advantage against the competitors - Qualcomm, Nvidia, NXP etc.
The flip side is its ability to hold on to the higher margin turf against the backdrops of lengthening of the PC replacement cycle - 3 cheers for the end of the CPU and Windows upgrade collusion and rat race - and possible threats in the data center CPU business from AMD, Google and Qualcomm.
I give management credit for cutting its losses in the mobile/tablet SOC attempts. But going forward it is by no means as easy as the author pitches.
Nice article and back of the envelope analysis.
I agree that Intel might double in five years with a number of cautions. You mentioned most of them as assumptions.
One example is Intel goals relative to autonomous driving. Intel says that by 2021 they will be providing the compute power for fully autonomous cars. HOWEVER, at this year's IDF Intel had scheduled a demonstration of their drone technology related to collision avoidance. This demo was to be in an enclosed (netted) area on top of an adjacent building. Collision avoidance in cars is much more important than in small drones. I looked forward to seeing this collision avoidance tech up close. When I asked the first day, I was told that the demo was having technical difficulties. I could see the enclosed space - so the issue had to be drone technology difficulties. They said they hoped to have it running the second day. I asked on the second day and no go . . . still technical difficulties.
Intel has repeatedly announced and demonstrated products in presentations. I have learned to watch for the limitations associated with the demonstrations. This is kind of like trying to figure out how a magician does a magic trick. I have been watching these demonstrations for three years and I can't think of one of the demonstrations that has turned into a money making mainstream product for Intel.
Anyone - - please correct me with specifics if I am wrong. I would like to be wrong.
Maybe Intel is being more pragmatic now. I'm waiting for some proof.
(What's next..., an article from Kerrisdale on Mellanox ??!!) |
