DTV.....................................................
January 05, 1998, Issue: 987
Section: News
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Market confusion, conflicting goals and FCC variables causing prime-time jitters -- It's clash of titans as DTV kickoff nears
Junko Yoshida and Ron Wilson
The opening of the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this week will mark the first public appearance of one of the most controversial and misunderstood technologies yet to intrude into the living room: high-definition TV.
First-generation sets from such consumer-electronics powerhouses as Sony, Matsushita, Thomson Consumer Electronics and Zenith all will be there. Leading chip vendors like Philips Semiconductors and Motorola will show off key digital-TV building-block ICs and reference designs. Intel Corp. and Microsoft Corp. will be there, too, independently pitching their private agendas for DTV.
The flurry of activity will only partially mask the fact that DTV is an ocean of confusion and conflicting goals. Three of the largest industries in the industrialized world-entertainment, consumer electronics and personal computers-are moving toward confrontation over the market. And within each industry, internal factions are causing further division-terrestrial broadcasters vs. cable operators, for instance, or Intel vs. Microsoft.
Deepening the confusion is the number of variables the Federal Communications Commission has put into the equation. The FCC's ruling mandates 18 different HDTV formats. They range from what was originally thought of as HDTV-a 6 x 9 aspect ratio, 1,080-line interlaced format with well over a megapixel of information-to moderate-resolution progressive-scan modes, lower-resolution progressive-scan modes friendly to computer monitors, simple digital versions of the picture from an NTSC signal, all the way down to a pure data format with no defined visual content at all.
No mandate covers which of the formats must be used where, or even whether they need to be used at all. It is, in that catchphrase of the free-trade sect, up to the market to decide.
So what will actually wind up in the American living room when the dust begins to settle, perhaps toward the end of 1999? "The truth is, nobody really knows," admitted Simon Dolan, vice president of marketing for consumer electronics at LSI Logic Corp. (Milpitas, Calif.). But the broad outlines are emerging.
Signal sources
Broadcasters hold one key to the puzzle. The FCC has mandated that the networks begin digital broadcasting of at least some content by the end of 1998. But the networks remain reluctant to reveal their plans for DTV services and applications.
NBC, for example, is promising only that it will do some high-definition (HD) and some converted standard-definition (SD) TV broadcasting at its DTV rollout in late 1998. "NBC is in the business of mass-marketing entertainment," and as such its primary responsibility is "broadcasting damn good pictures," said Charles Jablonski, vice president of broadcast and network engineering. He called such services as multicasting and data broadcasting "niche marketing" and predicted "they will grow slowly."
But PBS, the most outspoken of the broadcasters, "will use all aspects of DTV to fulfill [its] mission as a public broadcaster of educational and cultural programs," said Gary P. Poon, executive director of the DTV Strategic Planning Office at the public TV network. Poon said PBS will offer some of its signature programming in HDTV during prime time and will broadcast multicast programs, tailored for segmented audiences during the day.
PBS also plans daytime datacasts."We will send a burst of Web sites, for example, by using the available bandwidth while broadcasting video," Poon said.
Still, PBS's aggressive plans stand in contrast to the industry consensus. "In late 1998, you will see primarily a few special events broadcast in high-definition format," predicted Bob Stokes, director of operations for digital television at Motorola Inc. "Then, the prime-time shows . . . will probably be simulcast in both the NTSC and HDTV formats."
Things will get more complex later on. "Starting in 1999, I think we will see quite a lot of people experimenting with the multicast standard-definition format," said Glenn Reitmeier, vice president at Sarnoff Corp. (Princeton, N.J.). "There is no prescribed format for using this mode, so there will be a lot of experimentation, from multiple programs to multiple, user-selectable camera angles for sports coverage. We will probably see some early experiments with using the data formats as well, but they won't be exploited that much in 1999."
If terrestrial broadcasters stick to such plans, they may have the field to themselves during HDTV's formative years. Alternative providers of program material appear far less prepared to jump on the HDTV bandwagon.
Surprisingly, the program source for about 60 percent of U.S. households seems to have been caught flat-footed by the FCC's 1998 mandate. For many in the cable industry, "HDTV has been an almost forgotten issue," said James Slade, vice president of business and product development at Pioneer New Media Technologies Inc. The likely scenario is for cable operators to pick up the vestigial-sideband-modulated, over-the-air DTV signals from terrestrial broadcasters; demodulate them; convert the signals to standard definition; remodulate them as quadrature-amplitude-modulated (QAM) signals; and feed them into the head end for digital cable-TV service, said Richard Green, president and chief executive officer of CableLabs Inc. (Louisville, Colo.)
That option, however, may turn out to be illegal. "We believe that must-carry rules should also be applied to digital broadcasting," said PBS's Poon. "We want our programming to be offered via cable in an unadulterated form, whether in HDTV or multicasting."
Another option, said Green, is a solution on the client side-a high-end cable set-top box that can receive MPEG-2 Main Profile @ High Level signals and down-convert them to SDTV. William Wall, chief technology officer at Scientific-Atlanta, suggested another possibility: using a cable set-top as a pass-through unit for HDTV signals and letting a DTV receiver handle HDTV.
The cable companies are at even more of a disadvantage when it comes to digital data formats. They have so far failed to agree on an application-layer protocol to make data intelligible across a range of cable providers and set-top boxes; indeed, they are just starting an open-cable effort. In the meantime, the prospect of data over HDTV will discourage many customers from buying cable modems, which are incompatible with the HDTV format.
The satellite industry may be in even worse shape. If broadcasters focus on high-definition 1,080 interlaced (1,080i) and 720 progressive-scan formats in 1998 and early 1999, most satellite systems will lack the bandwidth to reproduce them.
"We have talked with all three U.S. satellite broadcasters, and I have to say they are less aggressive than the cable providers in deploying HDTV," said Kishore Manghnani, vice president of marketing at chip vendor TeraLogic.
Another common TV-signal source will be noticeably absent from the living room when 1999 dawns: the VCR or DVD player. "At the moment, the industry just doesn't have an answer for VCR or DVD capability on digital signals," said Manghnani. "I'm not aware of anyone planning to deploy even a playback system in 1998. But in the long term, the success of HDTV certainly requires a VCR capability."
Details of the box
With all the uncertainties about signal sources, it's no wonder there are differences of opinion about the box. What kind of gadget will sit in the rec room two years hence? Perhaps a $5,000 large-screen projection TV able to receive and display full HD pictures. Perhaps a digital SDTV receiver that supports both conventional and 6 x 9 screen formats. Or maybe a $500 set-top that down-converts DTV signals-regardless of format-into 525-line, interlaced NTSC signals for existing analog TVs.
DTV might be the last word in PC/TV theater, with the best-quality audio and video plus Windows. Or it might be a $250 Internet appliance, reminiscent of a MiniTel terminal.
The best guess is that all will coexist in the market, each appealing to a particular segment-and pleading for unique programming from an apoplectic group of broadcasters.
In the beginning, the emphasis will likely be on the full 1,080i format and on projection systems that show it off best. "We are going to see a generation of TV sets with the emphasis on very high picture quality," said Manghnani of TeraLogic. "They will be mostly projection and very large-screen CRT systems, too expensive for most consumers."
The goal, he said, is "to have people go to their local sports bar or club and see that HDTV is a whole new experience, not just a new way of transmitting the same old TV. That is vital to the future of the market."
If picture quality is one leg for DTV to stand on, price will be another. Driving down the cost of receiving HDTV will be a delicate game of bait and switch-luring viewers with HD pictures and then getting them to buy equipment that delivers less. For the first few years, it simply won't be possible to put 1,080i on a big screen for a price most consumers will tolerate.
One strategy is to separate the receiver from the display. Matsushita will offer DTV receivers as standalone set-tops. "We believe that TVs will eventually become unbundled," said Paul Liao, chief technology officer of Matsushita Electric Corp. of America. "TV will move from being just a box to a more-flexible unit," like hi-fi components.
A consumer with a set-top converter would view the output on an NTSC set or a new moderate-resolution monitor, gaining access to SD and (with a better monitor) enhanced-definition programs, plus the ability to view a decimated and interpolated version of HD programs. As prices come down, customers can upgrade.
Laggard data
As consumers sort out their display choices, the Advanced Television Systems Committee will be rushing to finish its definitions for the HDTV data formats. Their arrival may launch data services on HDTV-or it may precipitate a battle of protocols and operating systems.
Here is where the PC industry could come into play. But, said LSI Logic's Dolan, "at least in the United States, a lot of the people who want data services or interactivity are already PC owners." That's why he's "not optimistic about HDTV's bringing about convergence."
PC users will have their cable modems or xDSL connections for Internet access. Data services via HDTV will include some Web access, but for the most part will be tied to program content, gradually branching out into consumer-oriented services like games, home banking and shopping, and community information.
Broadcasting a simple synopsis of a TV drama for a viewer who missed part of the show is one possibility, said Matsushita's Liao. So are personalized electronic program guides and program-specific chat rooms. But such services may take a few years to evolve, he cautioned.
Copyright (c) 1998 CMP Media Inc.
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