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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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From: zax8/30/2016 11:34:28 AM
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There’s a Way to See How Much Donald Trump’s Nomination Has Cost the G.O.P.
Lynn Vavreck @vavreck AUG. 30, 2016

nytimes.com

There is no reason to speculate about whether nominating Donald J. Trump has cost the Republican Party support in this presidential election. There is plenty of data to demonstrate that it has.Dylan Matthews of Vox showed one way of measuring the toll of choosing Mr. Trump over a candidate who more resembles past nominees. He considered the predicted election outcome for 2016 based on fundamental conditions that have long been known to affect presidential outcomes.



Doing this yields a very tight race, extremely close to the 50-50 mark. The Upshot’s election forecast and other forecasts give Hillary Clinton a substantial lead, suggesting how much Mr. Trump might be underperforming an average Republican nominee from the past several decades, given how close this election was supposed to be based on fundamentals like the economy and the president’s approval rating.Another way to see what is being called the Trump Tax is to look at polling’s generic ballot question: It asks people whether they would vote for the Democrat or the Republican, with no declaration of the identity of those people.

This survey question often gets a different response than a question about specific candidates — especially if the candidates are not yet known. That’s because respondents are typically thinking of their favorite candidate as the winner of the nomination, regardless of what the likely outcome of the nomination process will be.

</snip> Read the rest here: nytimes.com
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