Ascend feels xDSL is going to be big in their future...Bill Gates feels xDSL is going to be big....I have to agree.
Jeff
DSL Options Coming From Carriers, ISPs
(12/31/97; 12:08 p.m. EST)
By Saroja Girishankar, InternetWeek
In 1997, the DSL hype machine sped into full gear,
but deployment of services did not live up to the hype.
Virtually all of the regional Bell operating companies
talked about offering cheap, multimegabit digital
subscriber line (DSL) services for Internet and
remote LAN access using existing copper loops. But
most users would be hard-pressed to find DSL
services available today.
Regardless of the delay, several active trials are under
way, and in some instances -- as with U S West,
GTE, and Southwestern Bell -- there are commercial
DSL services available in limited geographical areas.
More regional Bells will roll out DSL services in 1998,
according to Beth Gage, broadband consultant at
TeleChoice. She expects the market to take off and
reach an installed base of 350,000 lines in 1998,
500,000 in 1999, and 1 million in 2000.
David Kirby, director of TeleHealth at Duke
University, has been testing asymmetric DSL services
on his campus for several months as part of a GTE
trial. The service offers 1.5 megabits per second
downstream (from the telephone network to the
subscriber), and 128 kilobits per second upstream
(from the subscriber to the telephone network), as
well as 4 Mbps downstream and 384 Kbps upstream.
Kirby's applications include videoconferencing and
diagnostic image transfer.
"We have been happy with the services, but the sweet
spot for us is to have symmetrical DSL services at
around 500 Kbps in both directions and at around
$40 a month," Kirby said.
Still, many IT managers and industry experts question
whether DSL is the new ISDN. After nearly 20
years, the regional Bells have deployed a relatively
small number of ISDN lines.
Many industry experts say
there has been little incentive
for the Bell companies to
offer DSL services. After all,
IT managers who need
bandwidth will continue to
buy ISDN, frame relay, and
T1 services.
And if the pricing of initial
DSL services can be used as a yardstick, there is even
less incentive for the regional Bells to offer DSL
services. The limited number of commercial DSL
services have come with what many consider to be
bargain rates for the bandwidth being delivered. Few
would pay $1,200 to $1,500 per month for a T1 line
when they can get comparable speeds with DSL for
$250 per month or less.
There are, however, competitive forces at work that
might light a fire under the regional Bells in 1998. For
one, the carriers may see some competition from cable
TV operators. The cable industry is starting to address
some of the shortcomings of its infrastructure. And the
entrance of internetworking equipment vendors like
Cisco and Bay Networks into the cable modem
market in 1997 is bringing some long-needed
management capabilities to cable modems.
Cable modems represent a double threat to the
regional Bells. Besides competing for high-speed data
services, many industry experts say they believe cable
operators are using cable modems as a Trojan horse
to go after the consumer telephone business.
In addition, competitive local exchange carriers and
ISPs such as Concentric Networks, Conectiv
Communications, Covad Communications, Vitts
Networks, and Xcom Technologies will likely increase
the pressure on the incumbent carriers. All will be
offering their customers DSL services in 1998.
These factors will make it hard for the incumbent
carriers to drag their feet when it comes to DSL
deployment.
-- Sal Salamone contributed to this story. |
