Alex: Many thanks for the Forbes article.
My take on the 1998 gold outlook and the lessons of 1997.
After a big gold bull such as 1993, another major gold bull will not occur for 4-5 years.
The only time that gold equities offer very favorable risk/reward ratios is after major smashes such as 1996-97.
Gold is now as cheap as it has ever been relative to stocks as are gold equities.
Now is one of those rare times when smart investors should be accumulating gold, gold equities, and gold mutual funds in a major way.
Even without a revival in western investment demand, bullion should rally to the $350-$400 range over the next 12-18 months. This does not require a financial collapse, war, or dollar smash. But it does require an end to the dollar bull, a significant drop in central bank selling and lending, more mine closures, and further industry consolidation. All of these seem very probable this year and 1999.
A much bigger upmove is POSSIBLE if one of the many disaster scenarios dreamed about by goldbugs should actually materialize. But even without any kind of disaster, bullion should move considerably higher before too long. And that will be enough to push many gold equities up 100%, 200%, or more. |
