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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 238.52

+7.0%

10:33 AM EST

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To: LK2 who wrote (1978)	1/1/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (1) of 9256

My resolution for 98. Expect bad news, prepare for it. Next time the DD sector starts on a downhill run, I resolve to get the hell out! Let's see, during the DecQ I saw the following hurt the DD sector: Date News 29-Sep-97 WDC announces SEG is dumping low end DDs 23-Oct-97 Asian Flu spreads(we all should have been chicken) 7-Nov-97 WDC announces Fujitsu is dumping too 7-Nov-97 RDRT announces WDC cutbacks and associated TFI charges 9-Nov-97 IBM announces first GMR drive 12-Nov-97 Micropolis closes it's doors 12-Nov-97 STMD announces Micropolis related charges 18-Nov-97 SEG announces they will not meet expectations 12-Nov-97 RDRT announces Micropolis related charges 21-Nov-97 QNTM announces changes to high-end and head biz 2-Dec-97 WDC announces further cutbacks(release #3 in 6 weeks) 8-Dec-97 APM announces significant cutback in orders 10-Dec-97 QNTM announces they will not meet expectations 10-Dec-97 SEG is closing Plant in Ireland 12-Dec-97 VECO announces cutback in demand seen 12-Dec-97 WDC investor lawsuit announced 17-Dec-97 Akashic lays of 750 people. 18-Dec-97 IOM delays shipment of Jaz2 30-Dec-97 EXBT will miss earnings Along the way we saw revision after revision, downgrades, changes in coverage, blah de blah. I remember H&Q finally downgrading QNTM, HMTT and RDRT because they were the last DD sector companies on their rec list! I'm sure I've missed some news, but they're the ones I logged at the time. I figure on 07Nov97 I should have started to move to cash. I held QNTM for the longest time believing that "DLT and their richer product mix" would save them from the turmoil. Now I know... Overcapacity hurts everyone. The smart ones got out before they saw the news the 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th or 20th time. With that said. Who's missing? Who hasn't mubbled a word? My order of expected BAD news in the next 2 weeks: 1) KMAG is the largest supplier to WDC. And were suffering before all this happened. Yields were low and they were not at full capacity. They expected WDC rev to be way up in Sep when they made their DecQ projections. 2) HTCH supplies everybody. No news yet. High fixed costs. Had a rough Q in Sep and were talking low #s GMs back then. They'll suffer more in this then the revisions are showing. 3) INVX supplies all the head wire(and some HIF I guess). No news. (I don't know much about their biz however) 4) STMD. They bought Akashic this Q? I'm really confused here. This may be the last Q for them(?). In October a PR said - "Company is in violation of certain financial covenants of its credit facility." This was before all the mess hit! And others we haven't heard much from. 1) HMTT. They supply IOM. Some WDC supply. 2) ZIGO. Heck, VECO announced problems. Are they next? They had a down Quarter in Sep. 3) IOM. We haven't heard enough from these guys. Maybe Dell will pull them through. todd

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