Revised 4th Qtr / Full Year estimate for 1997 ...............
E.P.S.
-----
YTD = $1.21
4th = .10
----
Year $1.31
====
Summary of changes/other:
Reduced 4th Qtr E.P.S. by SEVEN CENTS due to:
(1) Reduced AHP USA sales for the 4th Qtr by
$1.4 million.
Things to fix in 1998
----------------------
* Synvisc does not show up on any of the
2 major Arthritis NEWS forums
* No significant Ad coverage in Magazines
of any type and especially regular consumer
magazines, People, RedBook, TV Guide
O/A market is 75% Women.
* Synvisc's competitor shows up more on Arthritis
message boards than Synvisc i.e. is Sanofi
marketing better than AHP.
* No progress on reimbursement(sp) issues.
* There is no Marketing Campaign Success story out
there being told.
* Potential problem with injection pain.
(2) Ignores any product sales to China although in one
of their early 1997 News releases BIOX mgt. stated
they would have product sales to China by end of 1997.
(3) WARNING: *ALL* these numbers are my best guesses.
Not based on any FACTS.
Regards,
John
Revised
4th Qtr. 1997
BIOX
Revised
IBD JM JM
----- ----- -----
Sy3 - AHP - USA 3,600 5,000 3,600
Sy3 - AHP - Foreign 500 250 250
Sy3 - BI - France 0 250 250
Sy3 - RPR - Canada 567 450 450
Sy3 - Roche - Sweden 500 250 250
Hylaform - CGEN - Foreign 200 450 450
Hylashied - Italy 0 25 25
Other - Cosmetic 0 325 325
----- ----- -----
Total Product Sales 5,367 7,000 5,600
----- ----- -----
AHP Fee Payment 0 1,000 1,000
----- ----- -----
Total Payments 0 1,000 1,000
----- ----- -----
Total Net Revenues 5,367 8,000 6,600
----- ----- -----
Product GM (Avg. %) 0.68 0.68 0.68
Product GM$ 3,650 4,760 3,808
License GM$ 0 1,000 1,000
----- ----- -----
Total GM$ 3,650 5,760 4,808
----- ----- -----
R&D 1,575 1,575 1,575
G&A 2,150 2,150 2,150
----- ----- -----
Total Operations Expense 3,725 3,725 3,725
----- ----- -----
Income from Operations -75 2,035 1,083
----- ----- -----
Interest Income 190 190 190
----- ----- -----
EBT 115 2,225 1,273
----- ----- -----
Tax Provision % 0.1 0.1 0.1
Tax Provision $ 11 223 127
----- ----- -----
EAT 104 2,002 1,146
===== ===== =====
E.P.S 0.01 0.17 0.10
===== ===== =====
Shares Out 11,500 11,500 11,500
===== ===== ===== |
