Steve, We have been at this for a while,
Unit grow is not the concern. Profit growth, Margin growth, APS's, The health of the consuming companies, these are the things that I care about.
See, I am talking about the STOCK.
If the market turns nasty, the technology won't mean squat.
If there are more sellers than Buyers, the stock will go down no matter what Lucy Painter says or what you think about the health of the industry.
That said, You are saying that PC units are still expected to grow
11-13 MM units.
Did you know that last week Semi Euipment spending was forcast to be up 8-10% and is now expected to be flat to down 5%, with japan expected to be down 25% next year ?
I am expecting your forcast to be changed as folks realize that the AP flu is the chicken flu.
BTW, where is Toshiba ? Are they not fairly serious in the notebook market. Are the margins good there ? are they a targeted competitor of DELL ? (you better hope so)
As for Tochiba and Sony pulling out of the Desk top mkt for now, Don't count your cookies to fast. They will be back. I do not know when, but it is a market that Sony wants to be in. Japs have a nack for doing something and then doing it much better then doing it better than anyone else in the world can.
Last, I have not read any books on PC marketing theory , PC industry dynamics, or on general PC assembly techniques. Why do you keep assuming that I read a book on this stuff.
I read stock research. Why do I read stock reshearch ? Because I am in the Stock business.
Now How many books on investing have you read ?
Just because you read one up on wall street does not make you a market expert. Just because you know all about a company does not mean that you can predict the stock price. I should go back and see what the ORCL people were saying just before the stock lost 10 Billion in market cap.
Jim |
