Andy, The Lehman Brothers report indicated that the lions share of the LLY milstone payments ($75 million) would be tied to rexinoids entering and advancing in the clinic. I think that Targretin monotherapy will start around the end of next quarter and I expect an IND filing for one of the second generation rexinoids to also happen this year, resulting in additional milestones. There should also be PFE milestone payments for the Droloxifene NDA as well as CP-366,156 moving into Phase II. The NDA is slated for 4Q and LGND should get milestone payments from AHP for TSE424 (this quarter?) as well as GLX's LDL modulator and ABT's glucocorticoid receptor modulator. Thus the milestone payments should come in fairly regularly and some may be concentrated in 4Q.
I'm not sure about off-label use. I had read a post on one of the cancer boards indicating that Targretin was being used for advanced melanoma, although I hadn't read anything about melanoma in LGND's press releases or cheat sheet.
I didn't see either newscast, but it sounds like Targretin or Panretin produces some pretty dramatic tumor shrinkage in at least two head and neck patients. Cancer treatments still have a very long way to go, and many physicians wouldn't hestitate to use a drug that has a favorable side effect profile and some excellent clinical efficacy.
Targretin and Panretin are in many trials and physicians can quickly learn about Phase II data, especially when conducted at teaching hospitals by physicians who present at medical conferences.
LGND is preparing a new cheat sheet, but the one put out on the fall of 1996 lists the following numbers for new patients in the US for indications targreted by Targretin and Panretin.
For Targretin they show 39,750 cases of head & neck, 22,200 Kaposi sarcoma, 169,900 lung cancer, 26,600 ovarian cancer, 244,000 prostate cancer, 28,800 renal cell cancer, and 6,000 skin lymphomas.
For Panretin they list head & neck, KS, ovarian, prostate, and renal cancers. In addition they show 1.2 million HIV, 2,500 APL, 12,500 multiple myeloma, and 50,900 non-Hodgkin lymphoma.
All of the above now belong to LGND (with a small royalty to AGN), and I expect the list to grow for the above two compounds as well as LGD1550. LGND appears to be ready to charge a significant price for a treatment course, so the money could accumulate fairly rapidly.
Moreover, LGND has alliances with about 25% of the pharmaceutical industry, so licensing of compounds elsewhere is likely (NDA filings for Panretin are in North America as well as Europe) and the cheat sheet doesn't show any dermatological applications which could be very significant for disorders such as acne or psoriasis as well as cosmeceutical applications like wrinkles. |
