Ok... so my mistake was not seeing the commercial... I'll
keep my eye out for it a get specifics so I can post
how CompUSA alone has shattered the price barrier that
no one else can touch<ggg> Sorry if I came down on
you too hard for not knowing a pentium from a pentiumII.
I only post facts that are verifiable... right now I can't
verify what's in the CPU P2 233 system for that price. I'm
sure the commercial is sketchy in details.
Now for your laundry list:
The AP crisis,
positive impact due to decreasing component costs
INTC driving P II pricing into the sub zero market,
positive impact, will allow Dell to enter this market
when necessary and avoid AMD/CYRX... don't forget the
LXr Intel is rolling out to support this cacheless version
of the PII... margins on these systems could be healthy.
companies desire to deploy low cost machines that dell does not sell,
Dell sells a very low cost NetPC loaded with corporate management
goodies for right at $1250 monitor included. The Optiplex G
starts at $1037 w/o a monitor... how can you say Dell has no
low cost offerings for corporations... keep in mind that the
consumer sub-zeros getting all the media hype are not designed
to work well in a corporate environment. Do you think big
corporations are gonna buy cheap home PC's from the likes
of CompUSA to be used as intranet terminals? Think again.
The $799 w/o monitor Presario 2200 won't sell into this
space as it wasn't designed for it.
general PC market saturation,
where is your proof... my IDC numbers say something different
and, owning 6% of a market growing at 13% next year is far
from saturation
poor demand for highpowered database software,
Huge demand for Internet servers
A personal assualt on DELL by CPQ,
gee, I had no idea they were actually competing with each other
relative slowing in servers as % of sales,
way off. wrong... where is your data?
Slowing in Q/Q and Y/Y earnings momentum,
This is factored in... no one knows what it will really be
3 years from now. Your betting it's gonna be worse than
people think.. right? My conservative model puts earnings
growth at 27% Y/Y in 12 quarters... we'll see.
High relative valuation of the stock,
Not relative to earnings growth.
Can the stock go down? Is that what you're asking?
sure. It can easily trade between 50 - 100 for the
next few quarters... especially is things are deteriorating
for Dell as you say they are. Keep in mind though that even
if industry fundamentals falter, Dell is in a position to
continue to grow and prosper... stockprice not withstanding.
MEATHEAD |
