I am thinking $2+ just based upon equity. If they go GREY, then I assume we are at the mercy of founders and when they decide to sell the assets. I must admit that my EQUITY number is over one year old and based upon assumptions of "no material impact" and statements made about cash and liabilities at the close of 2015.
Cash and cash equivalents are expected to be approximately $42 million and short-term loans and current portion of long-term debt are expected to be approximately $66 million at December 31, 2015.
Why are you using the Q4 2015 estimated information? They've published more recent Q2 2016 estimated information, see below:
It's on the Nasdaq website
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Unaudited preliminary financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2016, are expected to include revenues within the range of $80 million to $83 million, income before income taxes within the range of $0.1 million to $1.0 million, and diluted earnings per share within the range of $0.21 to $0.23 per share. Earnings per share for the quarter includes the $0.21 per share benefit of income tax contingencies released upon the expiration of the statute of limitations for the related tax positions. Revenue decreased for the quarter primarily due to lower sales of CFL products resulting from lower demand in North America. Cash and cash equivalents are expected to be approximately $21 million and short-term loans and current portion of long-term debt are expected to be approximately $47 million at June 30, 2016. Based upon the investigative procedures to date, the Registrant has not identified any material adjustments to its financial results. However, the investigation is still ongoing and there can be no assurance that material adjustments to previously issued financial statements or these preliminary results will not be required.
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secfilings.nasdaq.com
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I read that as they need to pay back $47 million within 9 months (a similar amount was classified as short term debt in the Q1 2016 estimate, so the due date is less than a year away), and they only have $21 million cash on hand.
How are they going to meet that $47m obligation? That's the main question I have. Maybe they cant refinance until they restate earnings? I don't know. But their operations were basically break even in Q2 2016, if they can refinance their short term debt then we'll see what happens. Otherwise there is a $47 million bill coming due before March 2017 that they can't pay. It will be an interesting couple of weeks coming up.
They've had this ~$25m more near term debt than cash issue for a while, and TCPI popped to $2.00 (for some reason, who knows why?) not too long ago. If they restate I think it will pop again, but then what happens to the stock will be a mystery. |
