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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate
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To: weatherguru who wrote (164)9/15/2016 12:19:39 PM
From: weatherguru1 Recommendation

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TideGlider

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La Nina rumblings: CPC cancels the La Nina watch. They expect ENSO neutral conditions the remainder of the year.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

I question the timing of pulling the La Nina watch (I'd wait a couple of months). The Southern Oscillation Index is in La Nina territory. This means the trade winds will pick up. It's also peak of boreal summer, and the southern hemisphere SST's are below normal. As we head to boreal winter, the trade winds will get stronger & the intertropical convergence zone (boreal and austral trade winds meet) shifts to the southern hemisphere. This will mix cooler waters with already anomalously cool water present.

It doesn't look like a strong La Nina. It may never quite reach La Nina status (it'll be close), but things could stay anomalously cool for longer. What this means to me is that the teleconnections with ENSO will be "out of the way", and this allows the polar vortex pattern to re-exert its influence this winter.

In recent years, the polar vortex (persistent ridges of high pressure) didn't attain full strength until January/February/March.

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