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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP)
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To: robt justine who wrote (700)1/1/1998 9:22:00 PM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (1) of 2068
 
Geez, Robt take a look at my original post - not just the
words you took out of context.

Your point is valid Premier, if the numbers are good. But
if costs also increase 5-10%, it's a zero sum. The key
ratio movement is claims paid/premiums collected, and
expectations seem to be for that to move up. Remember
that just a few years ago the industry-wide ratio was around
0.7. Now it's around 0.82, and many seem to be looking
for a further squeeze above 0.85.

You took the first two sentences. Maybe you didn't read the
rest? From what you're suggesting I was saying that costs
and premiums would move up equally, which would of course
decrease the medical loss ratio - yet I point out it is on
the rise!

When I said 5-10% I was generalizing and I never meant
to suggest equal percentage moves. By the subsequent context it should
be obvious that I meant costs would increase greater than
or equal to the premium increases that I postulated HMOs will
actually get.

Otherwise why would I point to an increasing Medical Loss
Ratio!!! Besides, on my very next post I clarified the
issue, so why drag it out and insinuate I'm making an error
when you know what I meant?

Like I said, you took words out of context and got nitpicky with
them. And I'm slippery?!?

BTW, I'm not blaming SI or admitting error - one limitation here
is it is a quickie medium and prone to imperfect framing of
logic by us quickie users. Context usually clears up any
imperfections.

Mike
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