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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Micah Lance who wrote (58037)9/21/2016 4:15:41 PM
From: Shane M  Read Replies (1) of 78670
 
Micah, I tried to respond to your post on commercial real estate the other day but my internet was flakey.

Anyhow, I recently saw this statement on the Avondale Asset Mgmt website. It's the Vornado CEO in presentation:

"we’ve been very clear in thinking that commodity retail in the United States is in a secular decline. So there are too many stores all selling the same product and there is just too much competition, by not a little, by a lot. The published statistics of the International Council of Shopping Centers is that there is a 25 square feet of retail per capita in the United States. The next highest nation is about 8. But I think that the 25 square feet per capita number is incorrect. I think it’s more like 35 or 40 if you really actually do your own numbers. So in any event there’s just a ton of stores all selling the same stuff."
direct link to comment along with others:
avondaleam.com

The follow-on to this, imho, is I'd expect surviving retailers to be in favorable environment when lease negotiations come up. DKS CEO talked about this recently in recent conference call, saying he thinks with so much retail closing up (some in desirable locations), there might be some very good space coming available at better prices, and in any event, will help their negotiations on renewing existing locations.
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