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Strategies & Market Trends : Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way

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To: Joe Highlander who wrote (14032)9/26/2016 1:54:19 PM
From: TedPunts  Read Replies (1) of 14340
 
You are a lot smarter than I am. The analysts from firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, etc., know a lot more about a company and its market opportunities than I do so I value their opinions.

Frankly, I’ve seen a lot of stocks that pull back from the targets that don’t go higher during bad market or side-way market periods. And I’ve seen stocks that have rocketed higher and then consolidate and then head down when the market turns or when the company misses expectations. Holding onto them, hoping they’ll go higher can be a mistake.

Selling some shares helps me deal with the problem of overstaying in a position that’s produced strong gains.

Since I have no idea when a strong rally in a stock will end or when the market will rollover, I favor the idea of selling some shares in a big winner on the way up, often using the gains for other new ideas or to add to positions. I’ve had some strong performers that wouldn’t have been purchased or added to if cash hadn’t been raised. Since missing out on some of those would have reduced my gains significantly, this is one reason why I favor selling some shares of a strong mover on the way up.

There have been times when holding onto all the position that has been rallying strongly would have been the right decision but I’ve found that when the market or the stock rolls over, the majority of times the profits made by selling on the way up are greater than the profits made by selling later. The strongest moving stocks often come down the quickest when the market turns.

During weak market periods like the second half of 2015, I made good gains selling on the way up. Those gains played an important role in the results for the year. If I hadn’t sold at higher levels my gains in those stocks would have been half or worse.

Since you don’t use analyst price targets and don’t think they should be used, what selling rules to you use?

Any other opinions would also be welcome.
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