Glenayre Technologies(GEMS)- a pure cellular PCS play? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Glenayre Technologies(GEMS)- a pure cellular PCS play?

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To: Timothy P. Ainge who wrote (2420)	1/2/1998 8:59:00 AM
From: van wang	Read Replies (2) of 3431

tim...sadly, i agree...but someone is accumulating at mid to high 9s we got 3 drivers for growth: domestic, intl and nonpaging svcs...and two are questionable...according to mgmt, domestic (49% of sales) paging maybe on its way back...i think this may be possible...first, paging operators are getting healthier and trading at better multiples...PAGE which i own continues to see insider buying (latest the Chairman bought 7000 at $12..its 10 7/8)even if MOT is their preferred supplier now...second, most major carriers are introducing enhanced services...for this Q, i am interested to see whether domestic paging revs increased and how much related to NPCS...Intl is a crap shoot...yes, you are right GEMS will be affected...but remember that the competitive environment is different...its like the West frontier and its a race to get subscribers...if i were in their shoes (paging carriers in Intl mkts), i keep buying...China is still dollar based in essence because the currency is non-convertible...non paging should grow...hopefully at same 250%% clip to prior qtr (which is faster than major competitors e.g. boston tech, comverse, etc..as one should expect from smaller operations)... interestingly, if you break up GEMS, i value the integrated network group to be $3 out of $10 (using multiple of sales---and i was conservative...would you buy the paging GEMS franchise for $7...I would...so GEMS is cheap given most of tang. bk is for paging business...tang. bk is little under $8...I think it doesnt touch $8 level unless we see paging dying for sure or financing receivables become a problem (which is the same as saying paging is dying because the service carriers would have been in trouble)...so far they are all improving their EBITDA...BTW given that everyone is striving for national networks, this takes some profitability out of GEMS given that there will be fewer customers and those who remain are larger buyers...also, i am not too worry about TekNow cheers van

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