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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.15+2.4%3:23 PM EST
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To: Joe NYC who wrote (43563)1/2/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: John Hansen  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
40% or 9.5%, the real issue is that we don't know what the basic-PC market share is and where it is going. As an Intel investor the issue seems to crucial to the stock price since the analysts made it an issue last quarter. Whatever the real data this issue makes great press and subsequently drives the stock price down.

Here is what we do know:

1. The consumer basic-PC market share is 30%-40% in Q4. There appears to be to much evidence to not believe this number.

2. I have it on very good authority that the busines basic-PC market share is 4% in the US and 10% worldwide for September. I have not seen this information in any public documents.

3. The basic-PC market share, in both business and consumer segments, is up from what it was a year ago. In the consumer segment the basic-PC represented around 4% market share in '95; however it represented around 20% of sales in Jan'94. It is hard to tell, based on history, whether the basic-PC is here to stay or if its market share will go down. Yes we can all offer opinions unfortunately they will not settle the arguement.

4. Intel, after ignoring the issue of the basic PC has decided that they are going to be a dominate player in the basic PC space and the $300 cable settop market. Interestingly, Intel has chosen to use the Pentium II in both segments.

I am long Intel and to me how this affects profitability and stock price is paramount. My inherient gut feel is that Intel will be sucessful, but unfortunately I can't prove it. If I could the stock price would be much higher.

regards,
John H
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