How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 472.22

-1.3%

Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: X-Ray Man who wrote (4579)	1/2/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Ed Schultz	Read Replies (2) of 74651

For the record: 1. Microsoft is more than happy with the results of NT4. (Tickled is a good word.) 2. Microsoft has more than offset R&D efforts with NT4. 3. NT growth is still 80%+ per year for a $2B product. 4. Percent of profits is low only because Office 97 is stealing the show. Remember, they did a MAJOR launch last year and have been making money hand over fist. Even though the profits from NT were outstanding, they cannot compare to Office. 5. NT and Win95 serve different markets. People use NT because it is an awesome operating system. 6. Several major research firms have predicted that NT5 is going to be huge. I believe one went so far as to say that NT will bring in $15B by the year 2001. Looking at the 80% growth, it is easy to see why. (Frankly, I think they will make it by the year 2000.) Say what you will about Microsoft, but I would not bet against it. Take a look at the launch of Win95 back in August of 1995. The stock shot up on all the "hype" and then settled down to a low of 40 (post-split) in January of 1996. It has since more than tripled in 2 years!!! On what? Win95? NT? Office? Win95 started it all and set the stage for Office. NT5 will do the same for Microsoft. My personal predictions: 1. Look for Microsoft to grow 20% this year. End at 160. 2. Win98 WILL ship in second quarter and WILL ship as designed. 3. Most of Microsoft's new revenue will come from BackOffice and from the small business. 4. NT5 will ship late this year or early next year. Look for the stock to at least DOUBLE in 2 years and probably triple. 1997 - 90 1998 - 130 (~50%) 1999 - 160 (~20%) 2000 - 240 (~50%) 2001 - 340 (~40%) All of the above is just my two bits. Anyone betting against Microsoft is not playing with a full deck of cards. Do not try and day trade this stock. Put you money in, go to sleep for 5 years, and enjoy the returns.

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