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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: staring who wrote (58112)10/5/2016 1:11:54 PM
From: Graham Osborn  Read Replies (1) of 78763
 
I'm actually starting to see some Graham-type opportunities, mostly in sectors battered since the start of the year. Graham didn't use technical analysis - and I do - hence in still waiting on some of these. The energy sector was pretty much the only place last year. The opportunities will come, as they always have, because ultralow rates will not persist forever, and YTM is what matters. Anyway, remember these opportunities weren't that common at the turn of the millennium either.

I think Mike Burry's 20% is still applicable today - although many other track records (including Graham-and-Doddsville and O'Neill) are not. Burry is one of the few who was able to sustain 20%ish returns through the financial crisis. The reason is because he is one of the few managers who is smart enough (or crazy enough) to make directional bets against markets. Unless you believe the US economy can continue to grow at the annualized rate of the last 100 years, or you have not learned any lessons from the stock market/ real estate crash in Japan in the early 90s, I think you need to implement intelligent bets against markets in order to do it. Your other option is to copy gizwick's trades which - for all I know - might be even better.

Maintaining short positions is a pain in the butt though, and if there were any other way (God knows I've looked) I would happily avoid it. Brad Jacobs is my least favorite person in the world right now.
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