Esteban,
Sorry to take so long to get back to you on this one:
On TSEMF the signal set up by the trendline drawn from the two post-gap highs, was right to within a 1/32, though the return, even with optimal trading wd've been less than 10%.
On QUAL (a stock I would never trade, though I couldn't tell you why not), there's a sharp downtrend line from the high of the day following the gap through the top hit three days later. That gave you a buy signal the following day; it would've taken molten-steel spherical things between the legs to have played it, but the return would've been in the neighborhood of 15% in one week.
The exact same sequence occurred with BMC. I'm going to keep tabs on QUAL and BMC to see if they are a special sub-species of "T.H.E CAT" (I don't know how old you are; that was a TV show in the '60s).
ALTS only gapped 20%, as far as I can tell.
Amlyn followed the QUAL/BMC scenario; the short steep line down would've gotten you in four days after the gap at 6 15/16, with good gains to follow.
TEAL is a tricky little forker. Its 10/23 signal was strong, but it got wiped out by the mini-crash. Still, you would've done better than 99% of the world if that was your only holding that Monday. 10/30 looks good to me too, as does 11/5, both produced, well you could call them results. You wouldn't have lost money. The fourth trading day of Dec., incidentally, was the strongest signal so far, again measly results. It's set up a strong uptrend these last three weeks, and is beginning to triangulate nicely. An intraday signal would be one to take very seriously; though this might go from gap to MIMBO without purring successfully.
ACTM: The 11/7 signal day was perfectly presaged by the short line (if my theory does hold, I think that line should be called the MEEP (which is the sound that baby kittens make). For ACTM draw the line from the top of the gap day and the next high, which was two days later.
TRKN: The MEEP would've gotten you in on the 12th trading day of Dec. (is that the 15th?), which as you say was a valid day. TRKN's failure to produce results can probably be traced to those seven very high-volume days in Nov.; such days aren't typical of the cat, and I think they presage some very serious trouble for the company. If you could find records of insider trading for them, I'd bet dollars to donuts that the CEO and all his friends were selling into those days. The only infallible rule in trading is to stay away from (or, if you can, short) stocks in which insiders are selling at brand-new lows. There are all sorts of reasons for them to sell at highs and during slow periods. There can be only one reason why they would sell on the way down: It's the highest it's going to be, at least as far as they can see.
Ivan |
