John, >>>Here is what we do know:
1. The consumer basic-PC market share is 30%-40% in Q4. There appears to be to much evidence to not believe this number.<<<
Here is what I think I know:
1. Computers (basic-pc) were in 30% of homes in the US (prior to 4Q).
2. Sales of sub $1k category computers were sharply higher 4Q
3. Trends established in the US will be adopted elsewhere (Europe, Asia, et al) maybe one year later .
Here are my conclusions:
1. If the computer (PC) reaches less than 50% of homes (and stays that way), then the sub 1k computer category will be a drag on margins for INTC, AMD, NSM, CPQ, DELL, GTW.....
2. If the trend starting in 4Q'97 makes the basic PC almost as ubigutious as the telephone and TV - reaching to perhaps the 80% level by the year 2000, than that would be a completely different story.
In my immediate family including nephews, nieces, uncles, aunts, so on ... the number of computers owned - none in the sub 1k categaory (all with intel inside except three MACs and 1 Aptiva with Cyrix)- exceed the number of telephones and TVs. Everyone uses it for Email. Baby Boomers and Post Boomers, in addition, use it to surf the net, WP, and card games. Some of the generations Xers are into AUI (eeow), 3D games, and in one case heavy into graphics.
3. For PCs to reach 80% of homes, prices need to come down to less than $500.
4. Email and online financial transactions will make this happen (reaching the 80% level).
5. High-end market to remain in the 30-40% levels with people like myself, family, and most people on this thread going through upgrade cycles every three years.
6. The next big cycle for upgrade in big business, institutions, and governments will be after year two thousand - where legacy mainframe systems will all migrate to the Intel platform.
Where I could be wrong is only in the timing.
Mary |
