Re: OS Upgrade
You said:
it remains to be seen if the two OS rollouts later this year -- Win98 in the June quarter and NT 5.0 in late 98 -- will be compelling enough to stimulate a major upgrade cycle.
I have two comments about this. First, I recall reading an article that dismissed the significance of Win98, alleging that Win98 offered nothing compelling versus a well equipped Win95 desktop. I tend to agree with this. What does Win98 offer? The most hyped feature of Win98 is the integrated internet and windows desktop resources. Personally, I find that "feature" an impediment rather than an attraction, given that I expect MS, as usual, to fumble the implementation of the interface. Modem clustering sounds nice, but there are hardware devices already offering that functionality from Diamond and Boca. From everything that I've heard regarding Win98, it will be a big non-event, in terms of functionality.
The other thing I want to mention is that I've seen estimates of 60% of corporate desktops still using 16-bit Windows (3.1 and 3.11). It's possible that Win98 or NT5 could spark an upgrade wave in that 16-bit installed base, as those firms move to harness the various advantages of 32-bit. Complete discussion of such advantages has taken place elsewhere; I will just mention ease of custom development (with tools like VB5) and a plethora of new, 32-bit applications.
Between these competing forces, the net effect of Win98 is uncertain. Clearly any new OS release boosts PC resource demand including our beloved HDDs, but will it be enough to get us out of our state of overcapacity?
My guess is: NO.
PX
P.S. I observe that Maxtor has cleverly scheduled major capacity (at their new Dalian, China fab, under construction) to come on line just in time for Win98 and NT5. Smart guys. |
