Vladimir Putin has felt shunted to the sidelines, designated as "a Regional Power" which has little or nothing to do with Syria. Syria is partly Russian policy, partly domestic Russian patriotism-builder and a lot about Putin's ego.
The result is Putin has started acting similarly to Kim Jung-un of North Korea, doing desperate things to get noticed and be taken seriously. Apart from France the response has been to ignore him. But when Francois Holland told him he wanted to discuss Putin's bombing of Aleppo, at their annual meeting planned a year ago, Putin immediately cancelled the meeting.
No one is opposing Putin's move in Syria in any way except verbally - other than Turkey which shot down a Russian jet for repeatedly violating Turkish airspace a year ago. Turkey and Russia have since made up as Russia depends on Turkey for foodstuffs, especially since Putin has banned the import of food from most other nations.
What this does have to do with is NATO / US anti-missile missiles in Poland, and of course the results of Putin's misadventures in Ukraine and Crimea.
Daniel Tusk, the former Prime Minister of Poland and current President of the EU Council pushed hard for the US to locate the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, which will include SM-3 Block IIA interceptors to be mission ready and positioned in Poland in 2018.
In response, two days ago Putin positioned Iskander nuclear-capable missiles into the ice-free Russian Naval Base in the Kaliningrad enclave carved out of Poland. - reuters.com - Tusk and the EU have insisted these offensive weapons be removed immediately. Putin is now insisting he will install similar offensive missile bases in Cuba, as if that's going to happen.
Tusk and his successor as PM, Beata Szydlo, have prohibited Russia from sending munitions by rail through Poland to Kaliningrad so the base is supplied by sea. During the winter season this means the supplies for Kaliningrad have to come from the Russian base in Crimea, as Russia's other northern naval bases are ice-locked. So Russian relations with Poland have been frosty from the first days of the Solidarity Movement.
After the Crimea sanctions were put in place, Putin created a stimulus program to keep Russia's economy on even keel. The most notable stimulus project has been a nation-wide expansion of fall-out shelters and warning sirens for the military and civilians. Two weeks ago many of these shelters were inaugurated with evacuation drills.
Putin's media had been busy with patriotic programming but Russians are frankly appalled at Putin's moves to the extend that he would not be re-elected if that were to happen today. They correctly see Putin as a thin-skinned bully who uses state power to retaliate for personal slight - very similar in nature to Trump.
The prior EIS (European Interceptor Site) George W Bush planned for Poland was cancelled in 2009 which initially seemed to be a concession, but was replaced with the more extensive phased Aegis system which is far more defensive but also far more capable. Construction on Aegis continues and we'll see what happens. |
