>>2. Microsoft has more than offset R&D efforts with NT4.
>>False
As of August of last year they were ahead of the curve. (This from the company meeting, or did you not attend?)
>>3. NT growth is still 80%+ per year for a $2B product.
>>Was, no recent data I know of.
As of August last year they were still doing roughly 120%. I am assuming they have slowed a bit since then. (They stated as much.)
>>4. Yada, yada, yada
Duh is right. Can't help it that Office is bringing in 50% of revenue and 75% of profit.
>>5. Awesome, NOT.
Awesome from a technical standpoint? Maybe not. (Though NT5 goes a LONG way to address a lot of the issues.) Awesome from a marketing standpoint? No comparison!
>>6. Big research firms can wrong, often are.
And analysts can be wrong, and brokers, and investors like yourself. Since no one can predict the future, one is forced to do surveys and make educated guesses. In the past year HP, KPMG, and IBM, three huge and influential companies, have jumped on the NT bandwagon.
>>1. 20% growth in MSFT this year won't justify a P/E=50.
Granted. But the PE is forward looking, not backward. Considering that growth in 1999 could easily exceed 50%, the PE is justifiable. Second, for the reasons listed in the last post, I think Microsoft will easily beat 20% this year.
>>2. DOJ will kill Win98, look for Win99 or something completely
different.
The DOJ will not kill Win98. Win98 will ship on time and as designed. The only thing the DOJ can possibly do is to force Microsoft to ship a version without the IE integrated. This is not very likely and would still not prevent Win98 from shipping. And even if they did ship a version without it, who would want it? Get real!
>>3. Possible.
Likely. Spent a whole hour at the meeting talking about this very subject.
>>4. Late 98. Anyone that thinks MSFT will triple by the 21st
century is a good case study for wish fulfilment.
We did just that in the past 2 years!!! On what?
Given that E-Commerce is going to explode, given that NT5 is going to be a huge success, given that Web-TV sales have finally taken off this Christmas, given that PC sales are still predicted to grow at 15-20% per year, given that Microsoft only owns 4% of all software sales (todays USA Today), it would appear a no brainer that Microsoft should triple in size in the next 3 years! |
