Wanna make a side bet? I'll put up $ to yours that MSFT
will not be at $400 three years from now. It might get hyped
up there in the interim. And if it ain't MSFT anymore, it
could happen (ie, they break up the company ala ATT). But I
don't think MSFT can sustain growth over the next three years
that can justify that stock price. JMO, although others are
starting to share it, and that is what will bring down the
P/E the market supports. Also, you might keep in mind, that
I expect an overall slowdown in the market growth during the
period, and thus a damper on high-flyers like MSFT. That's
what I said five months ago, nothing happened yet to change
my mind.
E-commerce will explode, but everyone will fight MSFT tooth-
and-nail from getting a large share of the pie. NT-5 will be
a disappointment compared to current hype, and Web-TV will be
one of many competitors in the marketplace. But all of these
activities are going to cost MSFT investment money, and they
will have to also start paying out their options and bonuses.
But we'll see in three years. Meanwhile, MSFT has yet to break
the $200 mark claimed by its promoters here six months ago.
Hey, I am not claiming MSFT is going to go broke, or that it
won't grow, or that the stock is going to $100 tomorrow. Just
that the company is on the downhill side of its growth peak.
JMO.
Happy New Year! |
