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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: E_K_S who wrote (58211)10/17/2016 11:09:01 AM
From: robert b furman3 Recommendations

Recommended By
E_K_S
pgo-neil
Spekulatius

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Hi E_K_S,

Cymer's new CEO is oriented to automotive.

Once built into a new model - it locks you position for several years (until a redesign occurs).

I've seen where the Broadcom purchas is expected to be a 30-40 million write off and this Q was supposed to be the end of planned fab utilization (left over from the spansion acquisition in Mar 2015).

I'm hoping it gives a good opportunity to buy at a dip.

Ther are tweo others in the semi equipment and test that have gone relatively below the radar:

Brks (although up from last Q on a percentage basis) Brks has taken their cryogenic and robot expertise and innovatively redefined the pharma and bio sample storage - which has proven to be a fast growing sector within the pharma and university research sectors. They made a 250 million sale of a non key competency asset and reapplied the earnigs into new products and the big for them Biostorage acquisition. They pay 40 cents a share annually in dividends and have no bank debt.

Lastly a small company named Cohu has consolidated the test handler industry over the last 5 years. Cohu's Delta division created and maintains a 95 percent market share.

Five years ago they acquired Rasco the then # 2 maker of gravity feed handlers. They have since gained the # market share over Microtest as of last year.

Almost 3 years ago they bought Ismeca a maker of turret handlers. When purchased they were the #1 market leader of the sector. Turret handlers are found in the LED manufacturing and now also utilize maching vission with in the Wafer level packaging processes.

Collectively they have the largest global test handler owner base and have repeat sales of consumeables that often represent 40% of their quarterly revenue.

Like Brks they have no bank debt.

Cohu has had a painfully slow transition from manufacturing in Poway California to Malaaka indonesia.

Over the last 2 years the transition has occurred and transition expenses have been ongoing but greatly minimized.

Having consolidated their business , I believe they about to show renewed profitability.

Cohu pays a 24 cent dividend and have been stuck in the 10.00 to 13.00 price range forever.

With only 26 million shares outstanding and a grip on the entire sector Cohu has the capability of being a cash cow or an acquisition target for a bigger player in the semi equipment.

The anti-competition call that has occurred between Klac and Lrcx - may well require the larger equipment companies to look down the food chain for smaller niche players.

Both brks and Cohu pay a dividend and have no bank debt - they are growing companies that have grown the steady repeatable revenue model in such a way that the dividend is safe from the PC cycles.

With a boost in industrial cyclicals both should be stellar debt free growth stories that pay a solid dividend along with a good growth story.

ALL 3 are my favorites in the $10.00 - $13.00 value stories.

As long as these stocks test the $10.00 range occasionally I been selling puts - that pay a 2-3 times premium vs the dividend paid.

Hope I have not burdened you with my rant - but I like some of your other picks!

Bob
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